Primer 04 Module 4 · Target selection 2 min read Methodology

Bid / no-bid decisions

Every proposal you write has an opportunity cost. A disciplined bid/no-bid score beats a strong proposal written for the wrong opportunity.

The five-factor bid / no-bid gate
Factor	What to ask
Capability fit	Have we delivered this exact scope before — and can we name the project?
Competition	How many bidders does this category usually draw? (Single-bid categories often mean an embedded incumbent.)
Incumbency	Is the current supplier re-bidding? Incumbents win renewals at high rates.
Capacity	Can we staff the work at the delivery date, not just write the proposal?
Margin	Does the ceiling price support our cost structure, or are we bidding to lose money?

Scoring the competition row with data. Québec's published bidder counts give the row real numbers. Construction works average 3.14 bidders per tender; services average 1.78; goods 1.61. Treat the inverse as a cold baseline: against an average field of 3.14, an undifferentiated bid wins roughly 32% of the time; against 1.78, roughly 56%. You are not an average bidder — but the baseline tells you which row of the score needs the strongest evidence. Primer 05 develops the arithmetic.

Score each factor, set a threshold, and honour it. The discipline is unglamorous; it is also the difference between a pipeline and a hobby.

Practice this against live opportunities with

Cite this page

The Procurement Institution. (2026). Bid / no-bid decisions — Primer. https://procurementinstitution.org/primers/bid-no-bid

@misc{pi-2026-primers-bid-no-bid,
  author = {{The Procurement Institution}},
  title  = {Bid / no-bid decisions — Primer},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://procurementinstitution.org/primers/bid-no-bid},
  note   = {Release 2026.10}
}